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DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/28 10:46
Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Lower
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
13 to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 8 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
13 to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is mixed with the S&P off 5 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 35 points
lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up .25
and natural gas up a penny. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
firmer with gold up 15.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower in quiet midday trade with mixed spread
action after the inverses softened to start the week with trade consolidating
the upper end of the range with momentum slowing. Ethanol margins will need
more help from unleaded to boost blender action with firming corn values
crimping margins again despite the uptick in demand. Basis has continued to
generally drift back higher. The daily export wire showed 136,000 metric tons
(mt) of corn sold to China today as the recent hot streak continues. The second
crop in Brazil is heading toward the better part of the growing season with
trade watching forecasts into April for development with some concerns on the
horizon in Central Brazil short term. On the May chart we are solidly above the
20-day moving average which is now support at $6.32, and resistance is at the
Upper Bollinger Band at $6.51, which we tested this morning.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 13 to 15 cents higher at midday with firmer spread
action as we continue to rebound after coming off oversold conditions with meal
back to leading the product complex. Meal is $8.00 to $9.00 higher and oil is
flat to 15 points higher. With South American new-crop beans becoming
available, export news has remained limited in recent days. China values have
slowed their washout as well, helping to find some stability. Basis has
generally remained solid short term with the market still showing a substantial
inverse even with recent narrowing. May chart support is now at the lower
Bollinger Band at $14.22, which we pushed back above Monday with further
support at the $14.05 fresh low scored Friday, while the 20-day moving average
is well above the market at $14.84.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 2 to 8 cents higher at midday with KC action leading as
crop development concerns add support along with the momentum being higher at
the moment as the KC/Chicago spread continues to widen at levels not seen for
11 years. Weather will continue to support KC action with the western Plains to
continue to struggle with moisture to the east, while early spring wheat
progress will be limited with cold and snow delaying the start of the season.
The U.S. dollar remains toward the lower end of the range, while Matif wheat is
off a little this morning to limit Chicago gains. Little other change is noted
on the world scene for now as India presses into harvest and other Northern
Hemisphere weather issues are limited for now with Australia planting on the
horizon. On the KC May Chart the 20-day is support at $8.19 with the fresh high
at $8.73 becoming resistance for now.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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